RAMALAN PENJUALAN
Data Penjualan
UD.
TEH POCI
DATA
PENJUALAN TEH POCI
BULAN
|
Y
|
X
|
XY
|
X2
|
X4
|
X2Y
|
JANUARI
|
900
|
-9
|
-8100
|
81
|
6561
|
72900
|
FEBRUARI
|
990
|
-7
|
-6930
|
49
|
2401
|
48510
|
MARET
|
1000
|
-5
|
-5000
|
25
|
625
|
25000
|
APRIL
|
1200
|
-3
|
-3600
|
9
|
81
|
10800
|
MEI
|
815
|
-1
|
-815
|
1
|
1
|
815
|
JUNI
|
430
|
1
|
430
|
1
|
1
|
430
|
JULI
|
560
|
3
|
1680
|
9
|
81
|
5040
|
AGUSTUS
|
959
|
5
|
4795
|
25
|
625
|
23975
|
SEPTEMBER
|
1100
|
7
|
7700
|
49
|
2401
|
53900
|
OKTOBER
|
1000
|
9
|
9000
|
81
|
6561
|
81000
|
∑
|
8954
|
0
|
-840
|
330
|
19338
|
322370
|
n =
10, dengan syarat ∑x= 0
Persamaan Trend
GarisLengkung
Y = a + bx + c.(x)2
a. Mencarinilai
a dan c
∑y
= n . a + c . ∑x2
∑x2y
= ∑x2. a + c . ∑x4
8954 = 10.a + c.330 (x33) 295482 = 330 . a + c . 10890
322370 = 330.a + c.19338 ( x1 ) 322370 = 330 . a + c . 19338
-26888 : -8448 = c
3,18 = c
8954
= 10 . a + c . 330
8954
= 10 . a + (3,18) . 330
8954
= 10 a + 1409,4
8954
– 1409,4 = 10 a
7904,6
= 10a
790,46 = a
b. mencari nilai b
b = ∑xy : ∑x2
= -840 : 330
= -2,54
2. Ramalan penjualan untukbulan November
2016 – April 2017
November 2016: Y = a +
bx + c (x)2
= 790,46 + (-2,94).11 + 3,18 (11)2
=
790,46 + (-32,34) + 384,78
= 1142,9 = 1143 cup
Desember2016 : Y = a + bx + c (x)2
=
790,46 + (-2,94).13 + 3,18 (13)2
=
790,46 + (-38,22) + 537,42
=
1289,66 = 1290 cup
Januari2107 : Y
= a + bx + c (x)2
=790,46 + (-2,94).15 + 3,18 (15)2
=
790,46 + (-44,1) + 715,5
= 1461,86 = 1462 cup
Februari2017 : Y = a + bx + c (x)2
= 790,46 + (-2,94).17 + 3,18 (17)2
= 790,46 + (-49,98) + 919,02
= 1659,5 = 1660 cup
Maret2107 : Y
= a + bx + c (x)2
= 790,46 + (-2,94).19 + 3,18 (19)2
= 790,46 + (-55,86) + 1147,98
= 1882,58 = 1883 cup
April 2017 : Y
= a + bx + c (x)2
= 790,46 + (-2,94).21 + 3,18 (21)2
= 790,46 + (-61,74) + 1402,38
=
2131.1 = 2131 cup
3.
Grafik Trend Garis Lengkung
ANGGARAN PENJUALAN
UD. TEH POCI
JL. MASJID SINGOSARI
ANGGARAN PENJUALAN
JL. MASJID SINGOSARI
ANGGARAN PENJUALAN
Bulan
|
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
November 2016
|
230
|
157
|
425
|
331
|
1.143
|
Desember 2016
|
258
|
350
|
341
|
341
|
1.290
|
Januari 2017
|
410
|
375
|
377
|
300
|
1.462
|
februari 2017
|
395
|
550
|
465
|
250
|
1.660
|
Maret 2017
|
435
|
448
|
500
|
500
|
1.883
|
April 2017
|
556
|
525
|
550
|
500
|
2.131
|
TOTAL
|
2.284
|
2.405
|
2.658
|
2.222
|
9.569
|
RATA-RATA
|
380,67
|
400,83
|
443
|
370,33
|
|
%
|
23,86
|
25,13
|
27,77
|
23,22
|
99,98
|
Perbandingan penjualan teh poci
adalah 1:3
Harga jual teh / cup (Rp) :
Teh
poci besar 5.000
Teh
poci kecil 2500
Penjualan per minggu :
1. November
2016
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 230 = 58 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 230 = 172 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 157 = 39 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 157 = 118 cup
Minggu III : Cup besar = 1/4 x 425 = 106 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 425 = 319 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 331 = 83 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 331 = 248 cup
2. Desember
2016
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 258 = 65 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 258 = 193 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 350 = 88 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 350 = 262 cup
Minggu III : Cup besar = 1/4 x 341 = 85 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 341 = 256 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 341 = 85 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 341 = 256 cup
3. Januari
2017
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 410 = 102 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 410 = 308 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 375 = 94 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 375 = 281 cup
Minggu III : Cup besar = 1/4 x 377 = 94 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 377 = 283 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 300 = 75 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 300 = 225 cup
4. Februari
2017
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 395 = 99 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 395 = 296 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 550 = 137 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 550 = 413 cup
Minggu III : Cup besar = 1/4 x 465 = 116 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 465 = 349 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 250 = 63 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 250 = 187 cup
5. Maret
2017
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 435 = 109 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 435 = 326 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 448 = 112 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 448 = 336 cup
Minggu III :Cup besar = 1/4 x 500 = 125 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 500 = 375 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 500 = 125 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 500 = 375 cup
6. April
2017
Minggu I : Cup besar = 1/4 x 556 = 139 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 556 = 417 cup
Minggu II : Cup besar = 1/4 x 525 = 131 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 525 = 394 cup
Minggu III : Cup besar = 1/4 x 550 = 137 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 550 = 413 cup
Minggu IV : Cup besar = 1/4 x 500 = 125 cup
Cup kecil =
3/4 x 500 = 375 cup
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggaran Penjualan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
NOVEMBER
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
58
|
5000
|
290000
|
39
|
5000
|
195000
|
106
|
5000
|
530000
|
83
|
5000
|
415000
|
286
|
5000
|
1430000
|
Cup Kecil
|
172
|
2500
|
430000
|
118
|
2500
|
295000
|
319
|
2500
|
797500
|
248
|
2500
|
620000
|
857
|
2500
|
2142500
|
Total
|
230
|
720000
|
157
|
490000
|
425
|
1327500
|
331
|
1035000
|
1143
|
3572500
|
|||||
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggarn Penjulan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
DESEMBER
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
65
|
5000
|
325000
|
88
|
5000
|
440000
|
85
|
5000
|
425000
|
85
|
5000
|
425000
|
323
|
5000
|
1615000
|
Cup Kecil
|
193
|
2500
|
482500
|
262
|
2500
|
655000
|
256
|
2500
|
640000
|
256
|
2500
|
640000
|
967
|
2500
|
2417500
|
Total
|
258
|
807500
|
350
|
1095000
|
341
|
1065000
|
341
|
1065000
|
1290
|
4032500
|
|||||
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggarn Penjulan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
JANUARI
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
102
|
5000
|
510000
|
94
|
5000
|
470000
|
94
|
5000
|
470000
|
75
|
5000
|
375000
|
365
|
5000
|
1825000
|
Cup Kecil
|
308
|
2500
|
770000
|
281
|
2500
|
702500
|
283
|
2500
|
707500
|
225
|
2500
|
562500
|
1097
|
2500
|
2742500
|
Total
|
410
|
1280000
|
375
|
1172500
|
377
|
1177500
|
300
|
937500
|
1462
|
4567500
|
|||||
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggarn Penjulan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
FEBRUARI
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
99
|
5000
|
495000
|
137
|
5000
|
685000
|
116
|
5000
|
580000
|
63
|
5000
|
315000
|
415
|
5000
|
2075000
|
Cup Kecil
|
296
|
2500
|
740000
|
413
|
2500
|
1032500
|
349
|
2500
|
872500
|
187
|
2500
|
467500
|
1245
|
2500
|
3112500
|
Total
|
395
|
1235000
|
550
|
1717500
|
465
|
1452500
|
250
|
782500
|
1660
|
5187500
|
|||||
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggarn Penjulan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
MARET
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
109
|
5000
|
545000
|
112
|
5000
|
560000
|
125
|
5000
|
625000
|
125
|
5000
|
625000
|
471
|
5000
|
2355000
|
Cup Kecil
|
326
|
2500
|
815000
|
336
|
2500
|
840000
|
375
|
2500
|
937500
|
375
|
2500
|
937500
|
1412
|
2500
|
3530000
|
Total
|
435
|
1360000
|
448
|
1400000
|
500
|
1562500
|
500
|
1562500
|
1883
|
5885000
|
|||||
UD. TEH POCI
|
|||||||||||||||
Anggarn Penjulan
|
|||||||||||||||
Jenis Cup
|
APRIL
|
||||||||||||||
Minggu I
|
Minggu II
|
Minggu III
|
Minggu IV
|
Sebulan
|
|||||||||||
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
Unit
|
Unit/Rp
|
Rp
|
|
Cup Besar
|
139
|
5000
|
695000
|
131
|
5000
|
655000
|
137
|
5000
|
685000
|
125
|
5000
|
625000
|
532
|
5000
|
2660000
|
Cup Kecil
|
417
|
2500
|
1042500
|
394
|
2500
|
985000
|
413
|
2500
|
1032500
|
375
|
2500
|
937500
|
1599
|
2500
|
3997500
|
Total
|
556
|
1737500
|
525
|
1640000
|
550
|
1717500
|
500
|
1562500
|
2131
|
6657500
| |||||
ANGGARAN PRODUKSI
ANGGARAN PRODUK DENGAN STABILITAS PERSEDIAAN
| Jenis Teh Poci |
Persediaan Produk Jadi
|
Selisih
|
|
Awal
|
Akhir
|
||
Cup Besar
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
Cup Kecil
|
6
|
8
|
2
|
Total
|
10
|
13
|
3
|
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan November 2016
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
58
|
172
|
230
|
39
|
118
|
157
|
106
|
319
|
425
|
83
|
248
|
331
|
286
|
857
|
1143
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
62
|
178
|
240
|
44
|
125
|
169
|
110
|
326
|
436
|
88
|
256
|
344
|
291
|
865
|
1156
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
58
|
172
|
230
|
40
|
119
|
159
|
105
|
319
|
424
|
84
|
249
|
333
|
287
|
859
|
1146
|
|||
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan Desember 2016
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
65
|
193
|
258
|
88
|
262
|
350
|
85
|
256
|
341
|
85
|
256
|
341
|
323
|
967
|
1290
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
70
|
200
|
270
|
92
|
269
|
362
|
89
|
262
|
351
|
88
|
263
|
351
|
328
|
975
|
1303
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
66
|
194
|
260
|
87
|
262
|
350
|
85
|
255
|
340
|
84
|
257
|
341
|
324
|
969
|
1293
|
|||
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan Januari 2017
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
102
|
308
|
410
|
94
|
281
|
375
|
94
|
283
|
377
|
75
|
225
|
300
|
365
|
1097
|
1462
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
3
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
106
|
315
|
421
|
99
|
288
|
387
|
97
|
289
|
386
|
80
|
233
|
313
|
370
|
1105
|
1475
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
102
|
309
|
411
|
95
|
281
|
376
|
92
|
282
|
374
|
76
|
227
|
303
|
366
|
1099
|
1465
|
|||
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan Februari 2017
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
99
|
296
|
395
|
137
|
413
|
550
|
116
|
349
|
465
|
63
|
187
|
250
|
415
|
1245
|
1660
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
104
|
303
|
407
|
141
|
420
|
561
|
120
|
355
|
475
|
68
|
195
|
263
|
420
|
1253
|
1673
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
100
|
297
|
397
|
136
|
413
|
549
|
116
|
348
|
464
|
64
|
189
|
253
|
416
|
1247
|
1663
|
|||
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan Maret 2017
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
109
|
326
|
435
|
112
|
336
|
448
|
125
|
375
|
500
|
125
|
375
|
500
|
471
|
1412
|
1883
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
113
|
332
|
445
|
117
|
343
|
460
|
130
|
382
|
512
|
130
|
383
|
513
|
476
|
1420
|
1896
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
109
|
326
|
435
|
113
|
337
|
450
|
125
|
375
|
500
|
125
|
376
|
501
|
472
|
1414
|
1886
|
|||
UD. TEH POCI
|
||||||||||||||||||
Bulan April 2017
|
||||||||||||||||||
Anggaran Produk
|
||||||||||||||||||
KETERANGAN
|
MINGGU
|
SEBULAN
|
||||||||||||||||
I
|
II
|
III
|
IV
|
|||||||||||||||
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
CB
|
CK
|
T
|
||||
PENJUALAN
|
139
|
417
|
556
|
131
|
394
|
525
|
137
|
413
|
550
|
125
|
375
|
500
|
532
|
1599
|
2131
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AKHIR
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
8
|
13
|
|||
PRODUK SIAP DIJUAL
|
143
|
424
|
567
|
136
|
401
|
537
|
141
|
419
|
560
|
130
|
383
|
513
|
537
|
1607
|
2144
|
|||
PERSEDIAAN PRODUK JADI AWAL
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
10
|
|||
PRODUK JADI
|
139
|
418
|
557
|
132
|
394
|
526
|
136
|
412
|
548
|
126
|
377
|
503
|
533
|
1601
|
2134
|
|||
ANGGARAN BAHAN BAKU
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